Production (Oil / BOE)

Capital ($MM)

At first glance, the 24 Mboe/d total production decline looks concerning — but the delta column tells a more nuanced story when you disaggregate it. Egypt accounts for 13 Mboe/d of that drop, and almost all of it traces back to a single administrative event: APA's withdrawal from a non-core concession effective February 2026. Strip that out and Egypt's underlying business is actually growing, with gross gas production guided 13–15% higher year-over-year on renegotiated terms that finally make Egyptian gas competitive with mid-cycle Brent economics.

The US picture is even more striking. A $205MM reduction in Permian drilling and completion capital — down 14% — produces only a 1 to 3 Mbo/d oil decline. That near-flat production outcome on meaningfully lower spend is the direct result of the 30% per-lateral-foot cost reduction APA achieved in 2025, driven by structural efficiency gains rather than one-off windfalls. The Permian rig count drops from roughly 6.5 to 5, yet the barrels barely move. That ratio is precisely what APA is trying to demonstrate to the market: that its cost reset is durable, not cyclical.

The $234MM reduction in total upstream capital is genuine and structural. It is not a response to a single bad quarter or a commodity price scare — it is the continuation of a deliberate multi-year effort to reset the company's cost base. APA expects to capture an additional $100MM in savings in 2026, building toward a $450MM annualized run-rate by year-end.

Sitting underneath all of this is a gas trading business that deserves more attention than it typically gets. APA expects $650MM of pre-tax income in 2026 from third-party purchases and sales — buying Permian gas at depressed Waha prices and selling into Gulf Coast or global LNG markets via Cheniere. At certain spread levels, that business alone could rival the free cash flow contribution of the entire international segment, and it gives APA leverage to European and Asian gas prices that most Permian-focused peers simply don't have.

The overarching theme is deliberate capital triage in preparation for a step-change. Management is holding production roughly flat at lower cost to generate cash, pay down debt — net debt fell 27% in 2025 to $4.0Bn, though it remains well above the $3.0Bn long-term target — and fund the Suriname GranMorgu development. That project, a 220,000 Bbl/d deepwater FPSO with first oil targeted for mid-2028, is where the Suriname capital line's modest $29MM reduction becomes interesting context: APA is not cutting that program, it is simply running it efficiently at $230MM, with project costs tracking in-line with FID estimates.

In short, 2026 is a bridge year — tighter, leaner, and engineered to weather commodity volatility. The small production declines in the delta column are either accounting-driven or the acceptable price of a structural cost reset. The real story begins in 2028, when Suriname is expected to contribute $500MM to over $1Bn annually in free cash flow net to APA's 40% working interest — a potential step-change that today's capital discipline is specifically designed to reach.